Posts Tagged ‘fixed income’
September 2026
Summary Markets limped to the end of the third quarter with September being an especially punishing month for investors. Lingering inflation concerns tipped the Fed into an official tightening stance with the first hike in the Fed Funds rate since 2023 hitting the books during the month. At the long end of the yield curve,…
Read MoreAugust 2026
Summary Stocks and bonds advanced in August despite revived commodity pressure in the wake of the expiration of the US/Iran ceasefire. Oil rallied, gold bounced back, and interest rates shifted higher, buoyed by more hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. Inflation concerns tied to rebounding energy prices drove global markets to price in policy tightening…
Read MoreReturn Forecasting Isn’t Prediction — It’s Disciplined Preparation
Photo credit: Unsplash Long‑term investors don’t need a crystal ball — they need a framework. Forecasting returns is not an exercise in predicting the next market swing, but in understanding the structural forces that reliably drive outcomes over full cycles. By focusing on observable inputs like income, real earnings growth, inflation, and credit losses —…
Read MoreTimes Are Changing – Should You?
photo credit: Pixabay In recent years, cash has enjoyed a period of higher yields, thanks to recent central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. This has made cash and cash-equivalents—such as savings accounts, money market funds, and short-term government securities—more attractive than they have been in over a decade. However, with rate…
Read MoreWhat’s the Cure for Fed Fatigue: Would You Believe Math?
photo credit: Unsplash How fixed income investing can alleviate interest rate stress and how you can forecast fixed income returns. Do you suffer from Fed Fatigue? The Federal Reserve Bank has dominated financial headlines lately. Will they, or won’t they? Do they dare drop rates? Will stubborn inflation take rates higher? It’s tiring to predict…
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