Retirement Income Is Moving to the Center of Defined Contribution Plan Design

photo credit: Unsplash What emerging industry trends signal—and how plan committees should respond The Next Evolution of the 401(k) For decades, defined contribution plans have been designed with a primary objective: helping participants accumulate assets for retirement. Increasingly, that is no longer enough. Across the retirement industry, there is a growing shift toward integrating retirement…

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What Sulfuric Acid May Be Signaling About Inflation and Portfolio Structure

A market perspective on input costs, pricing pressure, and investment positioning In investment markets, the most consequential risks are often those that attract little attention. While headlines typically center on central bank policy, equity valuations, and widely followed benchmarks such as oil prices or the S&P 500, important signals frequently emerge earlier in the production…

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Return Forecasting Isn’t Prediction — It’s Disciplined Preparation

Photo credit: Unsplash Long‑term investors don’t need a crystal ball — they need a framework. Forecasting returns is not an exercise in predicting the next market swing, but in understanding the structural forces that reliably drive outcomes over full cycles. By focusing on observable inputs like income, real earnings growth, inflation, and credit losses —…

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Six Key Focus Areas for Plan Sponsors in 2026 – A Clear-Eyed View

photo credit: Unsplash Retirement plan sponsors enter 2026 facing one of the most consequential years in recent ERISA history. Regulatory forces, market realities, participant expectations, and fiduciary exposure are all evolving simultaneously. SECURE 2.0 is moving from statute to operations. Cybersecurity threats continue to escalate. Retirement income solutions are transitioning from conceptual to operational. Investment…

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The Silence Before the Storm: Legendary Investors and Market Signals

Photo credit: Pixabay For decades, investors have sought clarity in a noisy financial world. While no single indicator can perfectly predict a market peak, the actions and commentary of seasoned, valuation-conscious investors—those who have successfully navigated multiple cycles—often provide signals worth heeding. When these figures, typically advocates of long-term optimism, begin to show caution through…

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Is AI Heading Toward a Capital Expenditure Bubble?

Photo credit: ideogram.ai The debate over whether artificial intelligence (AI) is inflating a financial bubble has intensified, drawing unsettling parallels to the dot-com era’s excesses. A complex web of deals, surpassing $1 trillion, reveals circular financing at play, where massive investments such as a $100 billion infusion into a leading AI firm loop back as…

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Speculative Assets in Retirement Plans: A Prudent Perspective

photo credit: Ideogram In our prior article, we examined the growing interest in private equity in 401(k) plans. That discussion, centered around illiquidity and fiduciary responsibility, provides important context for the next frontier: speculative assets. Recently, the Administration asked the Department of Labor (DOL) to further review their use in retirement plans. For plan sponsors,…

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Roth Catch-Up Contributions: The Long-Awaited Rules Have Finally Landed

photo credit: Ideogram After months of circling the regulatory runway, the IRS has released final regulations under the SECURE 2.0 Act, including long-anticipated guidance on Roth catch-up contributions. These rules provide much-needed clarity for employers preparing to implement the Roth catch-up provision in 2026. While the regulations officially apply to tax years beginning after December…

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Is Your 401(k) Ready for Private Assets? A Look Beyond the Promise

photo credit: Ideogram As the landscape of retirement savings continues to evolve, new proposals and potential opportunities emerge, promising enhanced returns and greater diversification for plan participants. Recently, discussions in Washington, D.C. have centered on the possibility of allowing private assets to become a more accessible component of 401(k) plan lineups, either as standalone options…

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The Buffett Indicator

Photo credit: ID 336907040 © Yaroslaf | Dreamstime.com What do lizards, Blizzards, and underwear have in common? Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. And do the lizard and the DQ Blizzard (and Berkshire Hathaway holdings, in general) predict a freeze in an exceedingly hot investment market? Possibly. More on that later. The Omaha-based conglomerate counts GEICO, Dairy Queen, and Fruit of…

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